Trade Like a Forex Time Machine

One of the cardinal rules of Forex trading is to keep your losses small. With small Forex trading losses, you can outlast those times the market moves against you, and be well positioned for when the trend turns around. The proven method to keeping your losses small is to set your maximum loss before you even open a Forex trading position. The maximum loss is the greatest amount of capital that you are comfortable losing on any one trade. With your maximum loss set as a small percentage of your Forex trading float, a string of losses won`t stop you from trading. Unlike the 95% of Forex traders out there who lose money because they haven`t applied good money management rules to their Forex trading system, you will be far down the road to success with this money management rule.

What happens if you don`t set a maximum loss? Let`s look at an example. If I had a Forex trading float of $1000, and I began trading with $100 a trade, it would be reasonable to experience three losses in a row. This would reduce my Forex trading capital to $700. What do you think those 95% of traders say at this time? They would reason, “Well, I`ve already had three losses in a row. So I`m really due for a win now.”

They would decide they`re going to bet $300 on the next trade because they think they have a higher chance of winning.

If that trader did bet $300 dollars on the next trade because they thought they were going to win, their capital could be reduced to $400 dollars. Their chances of making money now are very slim. They would need to make 150% on their next trade just to break even. If they had set their maximum loss, and stuck to that decision, they would not be in this position.

Here`s a perfect illustration why most people lose money in the Forex trading market. Let`s start out with another $1,000 float, and begin our Forex trading with $250. After only three losses in a row, we`ve lost $750, and our capital has been reduced to $250. Effectively, we must make 300% return on the next trade and that will allow us to break even.

In both of these cases, the reason for failure was because the trader risked too much, and didn`t apply good money management. Remember, the goal here is to keep our losses as small as possible while also making sure that we open a large enough position to capitalize on profits. With your money management rules in place, in your Forex trading system, you will always be able to do this.

Currencies are priced in pairs, no single pair trades completely independently of the others. This makes the understanding of correlation very important.

For example, currency pair “A” moves in the same direction as pair “B” and we have been following up pair A’s move very closely. We expect it to go up and we buy. We have not been following up pair “B” so closely and suddenly we look into that and the fundamentals or technical analysis suggests us that this pair may go down. We short sell. What eventually would happen that we would end up having profit on one pair and loss on the other as they moved in same direction. Similar case would happen if we simultaneously go long or short on two pairs which move in opposite directions.

Once we know about these correlations and their changes with time, we can take advantage of them to control our portfolio’s exposure.

The correlation coefficient ranges between -1 and +1.

A correlation of +1 implies that the two currency pairs will move in the same direction 100% of the time. A correlation of -1 implies the two currency pairs will move in the opposite direction 100% of the time. A correlation of zero implies that the relationship between the currency pairs is completely random.

Positive Correlation:

A positive figure but less than +1 means that the currency pairs generally move in same direction but not always. A value closer to +1 means that most of the time they move in the same direction.

Negative Correlation:

A negative figure but more than -1 means that the currency pairs generally move in opposite direction but not always. A value closer to -1 means that most of the time they move in opposite directions.

How to use currency correlation when you are trading Forex? Well, your slow speed because of an occasional traffic jam on the expressway does not really indicate that the average speed you would end up on the road will be same. The correlation are dynamic and change every moment. Take a note of the correlation of the past few days and compare it with the correlation value in the long term, say past one year. If the short term value is far different from the long term value, may be it’s offering you a chance to place a trade… but how? Let’s say that currency pairs A and B has a correlation value of 0.98 during past one year. It means that they both move in almost the same direction. When currency pair A moves up, currency pair B also moves up with the same speed. Suddenly you notice that during the past one month or one week the correlation value of the currency pairs A and B is 0.10 i.e. moving in the same direction but with a different speed. To clarify as an example let’s say two cars are moving towards the same destination, one is moving at 100 miles/hr and another at 10 miles/hour. But we can assume that ultimately both may have to catch up on the speed (similar speeds). So what do we do? Well, we find out which one is slow and ride that.

When we convert this car example to currency trading, suppose two currency pairs move in the same direction and have been moving up with a correlation over 0.60 in the long-term and we find that suddenly the correlation value in during the past few days has become 0.20, we just see which currency pair’s movement (increase is slow) and we could buy that. On the other hand we could short-see another currency pair.

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